The National Pancreatic Cyst Registry | Risk Stratification

Risk Stratification of Pancreatic Cysts According to Their Malignant Potential

Using Integrated Molecular Pathology

Negative Predictive Value = 97%

Benign or Statistically Indolent: NPV= 97% [95% CI: 95.1-98.6]
Hazard Ratios

Statistically Higher Risk: 30.8 [95% CI: 15.4-61.9, p<0.0001]
Aggressive: 76.3 [95% CI: 36.4-159.9, p<0.0001]


Integrated molecular pathology correctly identifies those patients at very low risk of developing pancreatic cancer (NPV= 97%).

Patients diagnosed as “statistically higher risk” have a 31-fold increased risk of cancer compared to “benign” and “statistically indolent” patients.
(HR= 30.8 [95% CI: 15.4-61.9, p<.0001])

Patients diagnosed as “aggressive” have a 76-fold increased risk of cancer compared to “benign” or “statistically indolent” patients.
(HR= 76.3 [95% CI: 36.4-159.9, p<.0001]) [/two_col_66_33_col2]